When a government has serious problems, the role of an Opposition
Leader is not only to kick it when it's on the way down but also to avoid
himself becoming a diverting political issue. So how come Malcolm Turnbull's well
directed, and soundly-based political kicks have been diverted, in the media,
from having their full impact because Turnbull and the Liberal leadership have
become a headline issue?
There are four simple answers: 1- Peter Costello; 2- Gaining
leadership by the sword generally invites the risk of death by it; 3- The
Liberal Party's structure works well in government and badly in opposition; 4-
The media is so hooked on real or imaginary leadership stories that the Canberra
press gallery cannot miss its regular "fix" no matter how absurd the
circumstances.
Former hero Costello, the man who wiped out the inherited $96 billion
deficit to put Australia
in probably the best position of any nation in the world to cope with the
present financial crisis, is accused of playing a spoiling game by remaining in
the parliament as a back-bencher. But maybe he simply showed excellent
judgement by not giving up his reasonably-paid parliamentary salary by going
into the finance industry just as it was about to collapse. And if he is
playing Banquo's ghost, the reality is that while Banquo certainly influenced
the action, he was still dead. Politically, so is Costello.
Turnbull will have to live with the continual sniping of those who
think he did the wrong thing by undermining Brendan Nelson, and they will
always find a ready audience in the Canberra
press gallery, where all the journos have to do is change the names and dates
of their stock leadership-challenge story. To compound the problem, the
structure of the Liberal Party, where the leader selects his Ministry without
reference to the party room, works well in government, where the Prime Minister
can select a group with whom he believes he can work well. But it means that in
opposition, many of those whose remarkable talents (in their own eyes) have
gone unrecognised by not being elevated into the Shadow Ministry naturally take
the view that perhaps an alternative leader who does realise their outstanding
merit (and who is willing to reward them for their support) should replace the myopic incumbent.
But the key role is that played by the media. It is the only
instrument through which the Opposition's message can get to the public. One
indication of the sort of problems an opposition leader faces is evident from a
comparison between the latest Kerry O'Brien 7.30 report interviews with Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull. Turnbull gets to
speak for a recognisably shorter proportion of the program than Rudd, is
interrupted more frequently and is continually asked what his policies are when
he is not in a position to implement any policies anyway!
As Turnbull protested to O'Brien: "Kerry, we're in opposition; I
just have to remind you of this. You're very focused on what out policy is... What
we're trying to do now is to understand what Labor is proposing (on climate
change)" and then Turnbull outlined how the government could be doing a
better job, based on CSIRO research.
When O'Brien responded that Turnbull's comments were a result of his
party room's policy problems, Turnbull replied "You just want to talk
about politics not policy".
No Liberal Opposition leader since Menzies has led his party after it
has lost government at an election and then become Prime Minister. Snedden was
beaten by Fraser, Peacock eventually (after some sad interregnums) saw John
Howard become Prime Minister and now Brendan Nelson has ended his prospects by
planning to step down at the next election. And the same goes for Labor.
Opposition leader is the worst job in politics, but Turnbull has the intellect,
the tough hide and the ambition to succeed. Whether he has the people-skills to
handle a party room full of excessive egos is yet to be seen.