When Kevin Rudd was elected in November 2007, the tsunami that was to become the Global Financial Crisis or Great Recession was a mere blip on the US economic radar. The shiny new Rudd Government inherited an economy that seemed to have a limitless horizon. The only dark cloud was the beginning of a succession of interest rate rises imposed to halt creeping inflation and an economy bouncing along on the back of high commodity prices.
Much heralded electoral promises, like the signing of the Kyoto Agreement and the apology to the Aboriginal people, were ticked off ceremoniously and ostentatiously. The plans to abolish the unfairness of WorkChoices and properly grapple with the spectre of climate change were progressing.
The States and Territories were summoned to Canberra to pay their respects to a new era of cooperation and the end of the perpetual Federal-State blame game. The possibility that Australia could be simultaneously prosperous and generous was becoming a reality.
Brendan Nelson, the Oppositions first batter, could only watch as Kevin Rudd and a steely Julia Gillard hurled curve balls around and past him. His place was taken with indecent haste by a switch hitter - Malcolm Turnbull, a man desperate to occupy what he saw as his rightful place at the helm of a political party.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the domino response from a series of dodgy US banks brought a new reality to the Rudd Government: a reality that would test their first term mettle in a way few would have foreseen. The global economy has ensured no country is inoculated from the devastating effects of a rotten, unregulated US credit market. Australia was stuck in the outer reaches of its web and was steadily being drawn towards the centre.
The early Rudd-Swan response to the growing crisis was swift and strong. The initial pre-Christmas $10 billion fiscal stimulus strike caught many by surprise, but the February 2009 $42 billion assault was breathtaking: not only for its size but for the massive implementation challenge it presented.
The threat was being transformed into a massive opportunity in the form of upgraded schools, housing and community facilities. But how successful this will be in shielding Australia from the worst effects of the world wide recession is yet to be seen. Old fears of generational debt from profligate Labor Governments have resurfaced but, in the face of an entirely new threat engulfing western economies, have been muted.
Despite the enormous intellectual challenge and political threat Kevin Rudd confronts in the form of this economic crisis, a relentless rise up the popularity ladder indicates the scale of his success in driving his government onwards while still managing to communicate his message and plan to the Australian people.
His work ethic is the stuff of legend, and every political staffers nightmare. His bureaucratic brain and obsessive need for detail, and brisk answers to policy questions, ensures only a few Ministers have gained a profile. But this disciplinarian approach has ensured Ministerial stuff ups and scandals have been scarce compared to the first term of previous Governments.
Kevin Rudds ability to win a second term does to a large degree depend upon the next turn of the financial crisis. Should the fiscal stimulus shield not be strong enough to protect Australia from the worst of the crisis; should the devastating effects of a sizeable increase in unemployment start to be felt; and should the most recent and allegedly successful Treasurer of the country ever decide he has the proverbials to stand up and present himself as an alternate leader, then there may be a temptation to make a change and it might be realised.
But with Rudds popularity as it is, this seems unlikely.
An additional unknown factor lurks in the background. Rudds determination to proceed with an Emissions Trading Scheme in 2010 has all the complexity and complication of the GST. The potential impacts and costs on business and families in a time of economic anxiety and uncertainly has the potential for the mother of all fear campaigns. Notwithstanding the completely valid and persuasive arguments underpinning the need to address climate change, in an uncertain world this may be seen as a luxury few are prepared to countenance.